Auto-regressive Distributive Lag, Capacity Utilization, Industrialization, Population Growth
Dim, Henry C.
This research work focused on the relationship between population growth and industrial output in Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2017. It is particularly interesting to study the relationship between population growth and industrialization in Nigeria because at the present, Nigeria is making rapid effort to advance her economy while undergoi- -ng a demographic transition that has been projected to be in a geometric transition. This research developed an Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model using Industrial Output as the dependent variable and Population growth rate, Life Expectancy, total Labour Force (as a percentage of total population that are employed), Capacity Utilization and Human Capital Development as the independent variables. The data were obtained from the World Bank, National Population Commission and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins (various issues). The findings revealed that Population Growth Rate has inverse relationship with Industrial Output both in the short run and long run while total Labour Force and Capacity Utilization also decrease Industrial Output both in the short and long run periods and Life Expectancy has a positive but insignificant effect on Industrial output in Nigeria. Since the Bounds test revealed a long run relationship between population and Industrial Output, we recommended a renewed determination and political will to implement the National Policy on Population for a long term sustainable development that outlines a sectoral strategy to manage our rising population. Also, the Industrial sector must convert the growing population to a producing population by organizing rapid informal trainings in specialized areas to boost industrial productivity